tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18935445.post8029737877334564538..comments2024-02-15T06:35:18.238-05:00Comments on *Reflective Disequilibrium*: What proxies to use for flow-through effects?Carlhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16384464120149476437noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18935445.post-67459209865224923462013-12-19T15:40:54.971-05:002013-12-19T15:40:54.971-05:00I think total GDP does have diminishing returns, a...I think total GDP does have diminishing returns, and often use log GDP as a way to think about that.<br /><br />The same goes for population, scientific papers published, etc. Proportional shifts are worth looking at.Carlhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16384464120149476437noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18935445.post-14380163106082033852013-12-19T07:36:01.396-05:002013-12-19T07:36:01.396-05:00Thanks for this post. A good conversation starter....Thanks for this post. A good conversation starter.<br /><br />Regarding Nick's query about inequality, it is present in the use of total log income instead of GDP. This is a pretty standard way to combine inequality in X with progress in X, where you think levelling down is bad. That said, if this situation is sufficiently different from the standard one, then maybe an explicit inequality measure would be good.<br /><br />Measures of coordination on various scales (international, national, social) would be good. One idea comes from one of Nick Bostrom's definitions for a singleton. Think of the value we would have if we solved all coordination problems at a given level and then look at what fraction of that we are currently achieving. Crimes rates could give some kind of social coordination estimate, but they tend not to be comparable statistically between times and places as the reporting standards keep changing. War statistics are a good example for the international level as you note. Something to deal with races to the bottom, cartels, rent-seeking, general prisoner's dilemma stuff etc would be nice.<br /><br />I like the idea of some kind of measure of brute global productivity, not taking into account diminishing returns for individuals because it is not being assessed for its impact on individuals, but I wonder whether we could do better than GDP here? It has some crazy pathologies (e.g. whether we pay each other or swap favours changes it a lot in the context of women entering the workforce, and it counts selling assets as income...). Countries do try to do these things to exploit the bugs in the measure so this can't just be factored out. <br /><br />Even ignoring the loopholes, I'm not sure the industrial capacity of the earth is linear in GDP. I wouldn't be shocked if it were a logarithmic (or exponential!) relationship. For instance we can ask which things are linear with GDP. Are any major things linear with it? Energy production? Materials production? Scientific advancement on some measure? <br /><br />If not, we might want to use a transformed version of GDP (or a replacement of it with bug-fixes), such as log GDP or exponentiated GDP. This can presumably change the analysis a lot in terms of how this factor compares to the others. In summary, I really worry about people picking the closest proxy to mind (GDP) when trying to estimate this component of future productivity growth.Toby Ordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18019744097526255393noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18935445.post-15751174094788661402013-12-14T03:18:47.486-05:002013-12-14T03:18:47.486-05:00This is an important post! I hope more EAs probe w...This is an important post! I hope more EAs probe which flow-through effects are relevant in which ways for the far future. I think there hasn't been nearly enough discussion of it.<br /><br />Among the factors listed, the three that seem to me most clearly positive and relevant to the far future are (1) wisdom, (2) international peace and cooperation, and (3) institutional-quality metrics. The signs are less clear for economic growth and especially technology, though I would love to hear more about whether you think the positives outweigh the negatives in more detail. My piece on <a href="http://utilitarian-essays.com/differential-intellectual-progress.html" rel="nofollow">differential intellectual progress</a> has further discussion.<br /><br />Isn't asteroid defense basically irrelevant given its tiny probabilities relative to other side-effects of economic growth? Geoengineering may play a bigger role, though of course, many would argue that faster economic growth would just make environmental problems worse.<br /><br />Within wisdom, I would include progress in the social sciences and philosophy. These could be measured by scientometrics of the type you discuss for natural sciences. Candidates include number of publications, number of web pages discussing those topics, number and length of Wikipedia articles on those topics, etc. Of course, the proof of some of these domains is in the pudding -- e.g., insofar as they improve democracy, transparency, global cooperation, and so on.<br /><br />One might also add measures of moral progress like equal treatment of minorities, animal welfare, etc.<br /><br />As far as inequality, I haven't studied the literature extensively, but I have heard <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2011/11/06/opinion/wilkinson-inequality-harm/index.html" rel="nofollow">arguments</a> about how it erodes many of the other metrics on Carl's list.Brian Tomasikhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10510289096715716609noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18935445.post-42950319806341769312013-12-12T18:43:54.685-05:002013-12-12T18:43:54.685-05:00Inequality is notably absent from the list. It'...Inequality is notably absent from the list. It's something I haven't thought about as much as I'd like. I haven't heard very convincing empirical or conceptual arguments for important long-run effects (though I haven't looked very hard), but the level of emphasis on this one characteristic from common sense gives me pause. Would be interested in your thoughts.<br /><br />Under education, perhaps there are relevant metrics of numeracy and scientific literacy to consider?<br /><br />IQ.<br /><br />Perhaps religiosity as an (anti)-measure of rational thought?<br /><br />Are measures of resources spent on rent-seeking accounted for in the measures of institutional quality you cited?Nick Becksteadhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16561745593227211371noreply@blogger.com